Catalyst Construction Economics Hub
Know where the industry is.Know where it's headed.
Data Which Reflects Where the Industry Is Today
NOTE: On January 23rd, 2026, Catalyst hosted Dr. Anirban Basu to gain his insight on the outlook for the 2026 construction economy. Dr. Basu is the Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., an economic and policy consulting firm headquartered in Baltimore, MD. Dr. Basu currently serves as the Chief Economist at the national level for the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). You can access the full recorded video below.
Construction Spending
U.S. Census Bureau - Construction Spending
Year-To-Date Annual Total - Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
June 2026 vs. June 2025
All Construction Spending: -3.2%
Public Construction: +1.7%
Private Construction: -4.7%
Residential Construction: -4.7%
Non-Residential Construction: -2.1%
Quick Analysis:
U.S. construction spending fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,166.5 billion in June 2026, down 0.1% from May's revised $2,168.5 billion and 3.2% below June 2025's $2,237.7 billion. Private construction slipped 0.1% month-over-month to $1,622.5 billion, with residential spending down 0.3% to $877.1 billion, though nonresidential ticked up 0.1% to $745.3 billion. Public construction held essentially flat at $544.1 billion, with educational spending unchanged at $113.1 billion and highway spending down 0.1% to $150.9 billion. Through the first half of 2026, total construction spending is running 3.5% below the same period last year, at $1,046.9 billion versus $1,084.5 billion.categories.
https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Construction Costs
ENR Construction Cost Index
August 2026 vs. August 2025
Total Construction Costs: +3.1%
Building Cost Index: +4.7%
Material Cost Index: +8.5%
Skilled Labor Costs: +1.5%
Common Labor Costs: +1.0%
Quick Analysis:
ENR's August 24, 2026 report shows national construction costs climbing broadly, with the Construction Cost Index up 3.1% year-over-year, the Building Cost Index up 4.7%, and the Materials Cost Index up 8.5%, the latter gaining 1.0% in August alone. Steel and lumber are driving much of that increase, with wide-flange steel shapes up 26.7% year-over-year, reinforcing bars up 16.4%, and lumber up 15.2%, while cement held nearly flat.
http://enr.construction.com/economics/
Construction Employment
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
July 2026
Construction Unemployment: 3.7%
Quick Analysis:
The construction industry's unadjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.7% in July 2026, essentially in line with the same month over the past several years: 3.4% in July 2025, 3.9% in July 2024, 3.9% in July 2023, and 3.5% in July 2022, though still above the cycle low of 3.4% set in 2018. It remains dramatically improved from the pandemic-era spike of 8.9% in July 2020 and the post-financial-crisis peak of 18.2% in July 2010. Within 2026 itself, the rate has followed its typical seasonal pattern, falling from a winter high of 7.1% in January to 3.7% in July, though it ticked up to 4.7% in June before easing back down, suggesting the usual summer hiring pickup is still holding despite the softer nonresidential spending and starts data seen elsewhere this cycle.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04032231?data_tool=XGtable
Contractor Backlogs
ABC Backlog Indicator
June 2026 (2nd Quarter)
National Avg. Backlog: 8.8 months
Backlog By Region:
South: 10.3 months Northeast: 8.0 months Middle States: 8.5 months West: 7.6 months
Backlog By Company Revenue:
<$30 Million: 7.7 months $30-$50 Million : 8.4 months $50-$100 Million: 10.2 months >$100 Million: 12.3 months
Backlog By Industry:
Commercial & Institutional: 8.9 months | Heavy Industrial: 9.7 months | Infrastructure: 10.1 months
Quick Analysis:
ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator stood at 8.8 months in June, up 0.1 months from June 2025, with backlog now higher than any point since September 2023. That resilience is concentrated at the top of the market: the 13% of contractors with data center work under contract carry an 11.0-month backlog versus 8.5 months for the other 87%, and just 8% of contractors under $100 million in revenue have data center work compared with 41% of those above $100 million. Contractor confidence remains solid year over year, with sales and staffing outlook readings up and all three Construction Confidence Index components still above the growth threshold of 50, though profit margin confidence has slipped to a seven-month low on rising input costs.
http://www.abc.org/NewsMedia/ConstructionEconomics/ConstructionBacklogIndicator/
Data Which Reflects Where the Industry Is Headed
Architectural Billings
AIA Architectural Billings Index
June 2026
Architectural Billings Index (ABI): 47.3
New Design Contract Index (DCI): 49.8
Commercial/Industrial ABI: 46.7
Institutional ABI: 47.4
Multi-Family Residential ABI: 45.6
Mixed Practice ABI: 42.7
South Region ABI: 49.5
West Region ABI: 45.6
Midwest Region ABI: 45.1
Northeast Region ABI: 44.9
New Project Inquiry Index (NPII): 56.1
Quick Analysis:
Index value > 50 represents that architects have reported more activity for that particular metric than the prior month. These metrics are leading indicators as the ABI reflects projects in design that will enter the construction phase in 9 to 12 months and the NPII reflects new project demand from owners to potentially enter the design phase.
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index fell to 46.6 in July 2026, extending the longest downturn in the index's history to nearly three and a half years, with project inquiries still positive at 52.6 even as design contracts dropped to 47.2. No region escaped the slowdown: the South led at 48.7, followed by the West at 47.8 and Midwest at 46.7, while the Northeast lagged at 44.8 for a second straight month. Every major sector contracted as well, with multifamily strongest at 48.4 and mixed-practice firms weakest at 43.2, and commercial/industrial firms notably have not reported billings growth since July four years ago, with AIA's chief economist warning that high oil prices could push interest rates higher and prolong the slump.
http://new.aia.org/press-releases
