Catalyst Construction Economics Hub
Know where the industry is.Know where it's headed.
Data Which Reflects Where the Industry Is Today
NOTE: On January 23rd, 2026, Catalyst hosted Dr. Anirban Basu to gain his insight on the outlook for the 2026 construction economy. Dr. Basu is the Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., an economic and policy consulting firm headquartered in Baltimore, MD. Dr. Basu currently serves as the Chief Economist at the national level for the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). You can access the full recorded video below.
Construction Spending
U.S. Census Bureau - Construction Spending
Year-To-Date Annual Total - Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
August 2026 vs. August 2025
(updated at the end of each month)
All Construction Spending: -1.7%
Public Construction: +2.5%
Private Construction: -3.1%
Residential Construction: -4.8%
Non-Residential Construction: -0.5%
Quick Analysis:
On a year-over-year, annualized basis, total construction spending in August 2026 was $2.20 trillion, down 1.7% from August 2025’s $2.24 trillion, even as it rose 0.9% from July’s revised level. Private construction was down 3.1% year-over-year to $1.66 trillion, driven by a 4.8% decline in residential spending ($882.3 billion vs. $926.9 billion), with new single-family down 3.5% and new multifamily roughly flat (-0.6%). Private nonresidential spending was down a milder 1.0% year-over-year to $773.0 billion, as a 19.8% drop in manufacturing was largely offset by growth in office (+29.8%, largely data center-driven) and power (+9.7%). Public construction remained the bright spot, up 2.5% year-over-year to $547.8 billion, led by highway and street spending (+4.4%), with educational spending up a modest 1.3%.
https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
Construction Costs
ENR Construction Cost Index
October 2026 vs. October 2025
(updated at the end of each month)
Total Construction Costs: +2.8%
Building Cost Index: +4.6%
Material Cost Index: +9.5%
Skilled Labor Costs: +0.6%
Common Labor Costs: +0.2%
Quick Analysis:
ENR’s October 26, 2026 report shows national construction cost growth cooling from September’s pace but still running well above wages. The Construction Cost Index rose 2.8% year-over-year (up 0.2% for the month), the Building Cost Index climbed 4.6% annually (up 0.1% monthly), and the Materials Cost Index rose 9.5% year-over-year, with its October gain of 0.2% a sharp slowdown from September’s 2.2% jump. Steel remains the main driver, up 20.0% year-over-year to $145.44/cwt, with wide-flange shapes up 22.2%, hot-rolled plate up 18.6%, and reinforcing bars up 16.0%, while lumber is up 11.8% annually despite a 0.6% monthly dip and cement is up just 1.8%. Platts spot prices point to continued pressure upstream, with hot-rolled coil up 51.5% and plate up 36.9% year-over-year, while labor costs remain muted, with common labor up just 0.2% and skilled labor up 0.6% annually.
http://enr.construction.com/economics/
Construction Employment
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
September 2026
(updated at the end of each month)
Construction Unemployment: 3.5%
Quick Analysis:
The construction industry’s unadjusted unemployment rate was 3.5% in September 2026, up from August’s 3.1%, which was the low for the year. That is below the September readings of each of the last three years (3.8% in 2025, 3.7% in 2024, and 3.8% in 2023) and just above 2022’s 3.4%. The September uptick follows the usual seasonal pattern, since the rate also rose from August in both 2024 and 2025 as the fall slowdown begins. Since the winter peak of 7.1% in January, the rate has fallen by more than half and has stayed in a tight 3.1% to 4.7% range since April. Labor availability remains a constraint for contractors even as spending and billings soften.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04032231?data_tool=XGtable
Contractor Backlogs
ABC Backlog Indicator
September 2026 (3rd Quarter)
(updated quarterly)
National Avg. Backlog: 8.7 months
Backlog By Region:
South: 10.3 months Northeast: 8.5 months Middle States: 6.7 months West: 8.1 months
Backlog By Company Revenue:
<$30 Million: 7.7 months $30-$50 Million : 6.4 months $50-$100 Million: 11.3 months >$100 Million: 11.8 months
Backlog By Industry:
Commercial & Institutional: 9.0 months Heavy Industrial: 8.1 months Infrastructure: 9.4 months
Quick Analysis:
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 8.7 months in September, up 0.2 months from both August and a year ago, marking a second straight monthly increase. Data centers are the driver: the 15% of ABC members under contract on data center work averaged 11.3 months of backlog, a full three months more than members without it, and the benefit skews heavily toward larger firms, with 39% of contractors above $100 million in annual revenue holding data center work versus about 1 in 10 smaller firms. By segment, commercial and institutional backlog climbed to its highest level since July 2025, while heavy industrial backlog fell to its lowest since March, though it remains up 0.5 months year-over-year. The outlook is more cautious, as ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales and profit margins both fell in September, with sales expectations hitting an 11-month low and more than 1 in 4 contractors expecting margins to contract over the next six months, the highest share since November 2025. Staffing expectations rose, and all three components remain above 50, still signaling expected growth, but ABC’s chief economist says rising materials, labor, and borrowing costs continue to squeeze contractors even as backlog holds up.
http://www.abc.org/NewsMedia/ConstructionEconomics/ConstructionBacklogIndicator/
Data Which Reflects Where the Industry Is Headed
Architectural Billings
AIA Architectural Billings Index
September 2026
(updated at the end of each month)
Architectural Billings Index (ABI): 44.7
New Design Contract Index (DCI): 43.7
Commercial/Industrial ABI: 50.9
Institutional ABI: 47.6
Multi-Family Residential ABI: 42.9
Mixed Practice ABI: 41.5
South Region ABI: 43.1
West Region ABI: 50.7
Midwest Region ABI: 50.6
Northeast Region ABI: 39.1
New Project Inquiry Index (NPII): 53.2
Quick Analysis:
Index value > 50 represents that architects have reported more activity for that particular metric than the prior month. These metrics are leading indicators as the ABI reflects projects in design that will enter the construction phase in 9 to 12 months and the NPII reflects new project demand from owners to potentially enter the design phase.
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index fell to 44.7 in September from August’s 47.2, the largest share of firms reporting declining billings since May, as project inquiries rose modestly (53.2) while newly signed design contracts dropped sharply to 43.7. The Northeast (39.1) remained weakest and the South (43.1) continued to soften, while the West (50.7) and Midwest (50.6) held stable. By sector, commercial/industrial firms (50.9) posted modest growth for a second straight month, but institutional (47.6), multifamily (42.9), and mixed-practice firms (41.5) all declined, with multifamily backlogs falling the most, from 6.2 months in March to 4.8 months in September. Average firm backlogs slipped to 6.2 months from 6.6 at the end of Q1, and AIA’s chief economist said that with a soft economy, tough project financing, and growing client caution, there is little reason to expect meaningful improvement in the near term.
http://new.aia.org/press-releases
